Can 3x leveraged ETF go to zero?
Leveraged ETF prices tend to decay over time, and triple leverage will tend to decay at a faster rate than 2x leverage. As a result, they can tend toward zero.
Because they rebalance daily, leveraged ETFs usually never lose all of their value. They can, however, fall toward zero over time. If a leveraged ETF approaches zero, its manager typically liquidates its assets and pays out all remaining holders in cash.
For most standard, unleveraged ETFs that track an index, the maximum you can theoretically lose is the amount you invested, driving your investment value to zero. However, it's rare for broad-market ETFs to go to zero unless the entire market or sector it tracks collapses entirely.
"They all go to 0 over time." "If you hold them for more than a few days, you will lose money." The 3x Long Nasdaq 100 ETF (TQQQ) was launched in February 2010, over 8 years ago. Since its inception, it has advanced 4,357%, versus a gain of 378% for the unleveraged Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Yes, leveraged ETFs can go negative in value. However, it's essential to understand the mechanisms behind leveraged ETFs and how they can lead to negative returns. Leveraged ETFs aim to deliver a multiple (2x or 3x) of the daily returns of an underlying index or benchmark.
BMO has launched the first quadruple leveraged ETN fund that tracks the S&P 500. The fund will trade under the ticker symbol "XXXX" and seeks to generate four time the S&P 500's return on a daily basis. The launch come as bullishness rise among investors and Wall Street predicts more gains to come in 2024.
Conclusion. TQQQ can be a powerful tool for investors seeking short-term exposure to the tech-heavy NASDAQ-100 Index. However, it's crucial to approach this leveraged ETF with a clear understanding of its risks.
Leveraged ETFs decay due to the compounding effect of daily returns, volatility of the market and the cost of leverage. The volatility drag of leveraged ETFs means that losses in the ETF can be magnified over time and they are not suitable for long-term investments.
The Bottom Line
Investors who buy index funds will not lose all of their investment. That's because they're investments buoyed by hundreds or thousands of underlying securities. As such, they're highly diversified, making it almost impossible for them to reach a value of zero.
The Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3x Shares (JNUG) and the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 3x Shares (JDST) are the two most volatile exchange-traded funds of all. Each has a one-year volatility reading of about 170.
Is it bad to hold TQQQ long term?
TQQQ seeks daily returns that are three times those of the QQQ (before fees and expenses.) QQQ experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TQQQ. Therefore, QQQ is best suited for long-term buy-and-hold investors, while TQQQ is better for active taders.
Historical data shows that leveraged ETFs can experience significant losses during market downturns, and negative returns can accumulate over time. Indicators suggest that a bubble may be forming in the Nasdaq-100 and that a recession could be on the horizon, making investing in TQQQ too risky.
Re: Investing 100% into TQQQ
Don't hold it long term for anything more than your “play money”, which for those that even allow for “play money” in their IPS is no more than 5%. The biggest risk is a sideways choppy market. You will get killed from the volatility in that environment.
A leveraged ETF uses derivative contracts to magnify the daily gains of an index or benchmark. These funds can offer high returns, but they also come with high risk and expenses. Funds that offer 3x leverage are particularly risky because they require higher leverage to achieve their returns.
The objective of the ETP Securities is to provide 5 times the value of the daily performance of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Exchange Traded Fund, net of fees and expenses.
So, if you invest in a 3x leveraged ETF, its return ratio would be 3:1. In turn, should the value of the underlying index increase by 1% on a given day, your returns would actually be 3%. The daily nature of these funds ultimately makes them best suited to be short-term securities.
And while theoretically possible, the entire US stock market going to zero would be incredibly unlikely. It would, in fact, take a catastrophic event involving the total dissolution of the US government and economic system for this to occur.
Direxion launched its first leveraged ETFs in 2008. In November 2008 the company was the first to offer ETFs with 3X leverage, a move that was copied some months later by its competitors ProShares and Rydex Investments.
The 10X S&P 500 ETF tracks the S&P 500® Index. The S&P 500® Index was created in 1957 as the first U.S. Market-Cap-weighted index, and tracks 500 of the top companies in the U.S. economy.
TQQQ is not designed for long term holding. TQQQ is essentially exposing yourself to 3X the risk. Putting $10K into TQQQ is like putting $30K into QQQ. And, due to the way the ETF works, it will underperform during sideways and down markets, sometimes significantly (like all of 2022).
Should I buy TQQQ or QQQ?
TQQQ - Volatility Comparison. The current volatility for Invesco QQQ (QQQ) is 3.98%, while ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) has a volatility of 11.98%. This indicates that QQQ experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TQQQ based on this measure.
The TQQQ ETF holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe TQQQ will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this ETF. TQQQ ETF can be purchased through just about any brokerage firm, including online brokerage services.
In other words, you could potentially be liable for more than you invested because you bought the position on leverage. But can a leveraged ETF go negative? No. If you own a leveraged ETF you can't lose more than your initial investment amount.
The daily rebalancing of leveraged and inverse ETFs creates a situation that for periods longer than a day or two the return of a leveraged or inverse ETF will deviate from the margin account benchmark.
Leverage can multiply your losses every bit as much as it can multiply your profits – which makes it a risky tool. But that doesn't necessarily mean you should avoid it altogether. Next, we'll look at how you can handle leverage sensibly.
