Do REITs go down when interest rates rise?
Here's an explanation for how we make money . More than a year of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve pushed down returns on real estate investment trusts, or REITs. While higher rates negatively impacted nearly every sector of the economy in 2022 and most of 2023, real estate was hit especially hard.
REIT Stock Performance and the Interest Rate Environment
Over longer periods, there has generally been a positive association between periods of rising rates and REIT returns. This is because rising rates generally reflect improvement in the underlying fundamentals.
For example, Realty Income (NYSE:O) had a beta of 0.5. A beta of 0.5 implies this REIT is half as volatile as the S&P 500, so if the S&P 500 slumps 10%, this REIT should only decline in value by 5%. Because of their lower volatility, REIT returns are less correlated with the stock market.
Higher interest rates pose a problem for Realty Income
First, like most REITs, Realty Income relies on borrowing money to buy new properties and expand its business. As borrowing costs go up through higher interest rates, it becomes more expensive for the company to finance its expansions.
For several months, real estate investment trusts (REITs) have been hammered by rising interest rates, fears of recession and skepticism about REITs in the market.
Right now, REITs (VNQ) are at an inflection point and time is running out for investors. But now as we head into 2024, we expect the polar opposite and this should lead to an epic recovery across the REIT sector. The Fed expects at least 3 interest rate cuts in 2024 and the market is predicting even more.
The value of a REIT is based on the real estate market, so if interest rates increase and the demand for properties goes down as a result, it could lead to lower property values, negatively impacting the value of your investment.
Therefore, if rates begin to rise then REIT cash flows will decline at a time when discount rates are rising. They fear the end result will be capital losses that offset the higher distribution yield and result in negative total returns.
Risks of investing in REITs include higher dividend taxes, sensitivity to interest rates, and exposure to specific property trends.
April 2, 2024, at 2:50 p.m. Real estate investment trusts, or REITs, are a great way to invest in the real estate sector while diversifying your options. Real estate investments can be an excellent way to earn returns, generate cash flow, hedge against inflation and diversify an investment portfolio.
Can REITs go to zero?
But since REITs are invested in property, there's more protection against the horror show of having shares crash to $0. By law, 75% of a REITs asset must be invested in real estate. The market value of the property owned by the REIT offers a bit of protection, as long as the value of the property doesn't go to zero.
In fact, REIT total returns bounced back with impressive performance in the last quarter of 2023. Based on historical experience, the convergence of the wide valuation gap between public and private real estate will likely ensure continued REIT outperformance into 2024.
Real estate stocks have been a bust so far in 2024. The rate-sensitive sector has underperformed the broader stock market this month as investors worry the Federal Reserve won't bring down the cost of borrowing as quickly as markets hope.
He and Charlie Munger, vice-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, actively dismissed it for many years. However, Buffett has recently invested in REITs as part of his passive income strategy.
With healthy property fundamentals and a favorable interest rate environment, REIT fund managers expect the sector to deliver double digit returns this year.
What this means is that REITs are ideal borrowers for banks. They are exactly who they want to do business with because they know that the risk of a REIT bankruptcy is extremely low. Just look at the past. There have been very few REIT bankruptcies over the past 50+ years.
Summary. REITs have access to capital and are acquiring assets, making it a good time to invest. REITs historically rebound when interest rates pivot and have the potential for rent growth.
There is no set lifetime for the trust in most cases. Investors who buy publicly traded shares in a REIT can usually buy as much or little as they like and dispose of the shares when they want or need to. However, if an investor buys a non-traded or private REIT, the investment should be considered illiquid.
As the REIT industry continues to evolve, its future growth prospects remain promising. According to the reports, the global REIT market is projected to reach a staggering $5.8 trillion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.1% during the forecast period of 2023-2030.
At that rate of return, a monthly investment of $300 in REITs would grow into $1 million in about 30 years. If you invested more money into REITs or those producing a higher average annual return, you could become a millionaire even faster.
How do you get out of a REIT?
While a REIT is still open to public investors, investors may be able to sell their shares back to the REIT. However, this sale usually comes at a discount; leaving only about 70% to 95% of the original value. Once a REIT is closed to the public, REIT companies may not offer early redemptions.
REITs allow individual investors to make money on real estate without having to own or manage physical properties. Direct real estate offers more tax breaks than REIT investments, and gives investors more control over decision making.
As interest rates rise, they can depress the price of these REITs. So while dividends may climb with interest rates, the price of publicly-traded REITs may decline. Historically, REITs are one of the better-performing sectors during inflationary periods.
He says: “Our analysis shows REITs perform very well historically in periods of high inflation. I could easily see global REIT returns in the low double-digits over the next 12 months – and if the economic situation turns out to be more positive it could be considerably more than that.”
REITs provide natural protection against inflation. Real estate rents and values tend to increase when prices do. This supports REIT dividend growth and provides a reliable stream of income even during inflationary periods.
