Why are REITs failing?
"REIT share prices were hurt by macro issues such as hybrid work model-driven office space demand, slower IT & ITES hiring, expected global recession and high interest rates," said Shantanu Bhargava, head of discretionary investment services at Waterfield Advisors.
Rising interest rates since the start of 2023 have hurt REITs because the cost of capital rises. COVID-19 also has had a long-term impact on commercial real estate as more employees are working from home, driving down the occupancy of office buildings in cities.
Right now, REITs (VNQ) are at an inflection point and time is running out for investors. But now as we head into 2024, we expect the polar opposite and this should lead to an epic recovery across the REIT sector. The Fed expects at least 3 interest rate cuts in 2024 and the market is predicting even more.
Tax Implications
Dividend income from REITs is typically taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate, which can be higher than the capital gains tax rate. Additionally, not all dividends received from REITs qualify for preferred tax treatments.
Historically, they have enjoyed a resurgence in total returns after monetary policy tightening cycles end. In fact, REIT total returns bounced back with impressive performance in the last quarter of 2023.
With healthy property fundamentals and a favorable interest rate environment, REIT fund managers expect the sector to deliver double digit returns this year.
But since REITs are invested in property, there's more protection against the horror show of having shares crash to $0. By law, 75% of a REITs asset must be invested in real estate. The market value of the property owned by the REIT offers a bit of protection, as long as the value of the property doesn't go to zero.
What this means is that REITs are ideal borrowers for banks. They are exactly who they want to do business with because they know that the risk of a REIT bankruptcy is extremely low. Just look at the past. There have been very few REIT bankruptcies over the past 50+ years.
Risks of investing in REITs include higher dividend taxes, sensitivity to interest rates, and exposure to specific property trends.
“The next two years, 2024 and 2025, will have more commercial real estate debt due to be refinanced in the history of CRE, that will cause some assets to be lost as values have decreased as interest rates have gone up,” Chancey said.
What I wish I knew before investing in REITs?
A lot of REIT investors focus too way much on the dividend yield. They think that a high dividend yield implies that a REIT is cheap and a good investment opportunity. In reality, it is often the opposite, and the dividend does not say much, if anything, about the valuation of a REIT.
REITs. When interest rates are falling, dependable, regular income investments become harder to find. This benefits high-quality real estate investment trusts, or REITs. Strictly speaking, REITs are not fixed-income securities; their dividends are not predetermined but are based on income generated from real estate.
The problem with REIT investments is the lack of control over the investment, the risk of poor management, and the market volatility affecting returns.
REITs historically perform well during and after recessions | Pensions & Investments.
REITs have access to capital and are acquiring assets, making it a good time to invest. REITs historically rebound when interest rates pivot and have the potential for rent growth.
After a volatile couple of years, we're optimistic about the potential for a calmer year in 2024. Given the strong fundamentals and compelling long-term drivers among certain REIT subsectors, we think the coming year could be constructive for patient real-estate investors.
Due in part to their attractive current yields, REITs have tended to deliver annualized total returns to investors of 10 to 12 percent over time.
There is no set lifetime for the trust in most cases. Investors who buy publicly traded shares in a REIT can usually buy as much or little as they like and dispose of the shares when they want or need to. However, if an investor buys a non-traded or private REIT, the investment should be considered illiquid.
REITs tend to be popular among income investors because they're required to distribute at least 90 percent of their taxable income as dividends to shareholders. So, for investors, there are two ways to make money from REITs: Appreciation when the REIT's share price goes up and regular quarterly dividend payouts.
To qualify as a REIT, a company must have the bulk of its assets and income connected to real estate investment and must distribute at least 90 percent of its taxable income to shareholders annually in the form of dividends.
Will REITs crash if interest rates rise?
REIT Stock Performance and the Interest Rate Environment
Over longer periods, there has generally been a positive association between periods of rising rates and REIT returns. This is because rising rates generally reflect improvement in the underlying fundamentals.
Key Points. REITs have outperformed stocks on 20-to-50-year horizons. Most REITs are less volatile than the S&P 500, with some only half as volatile as the market at large.
Since most non-traded REITs are illiquid, there are often restrictions to redeeming and selling shares. While a REIT is still open to public investors, investors may be able to sell their shares back to the REIT. However, this sale usually comes at a discount; leaving only about 70% to 95% of the original value.
Higher interest rates pose a problem for Realty Income
First, like most REITs, Realty Income relies on borrowing money to buy new properties and expand its business. As borrowing costs go up through higher interest rates, it becomes more expensive for the company to finance its expansions.
Whereas publicly traded REITs allow you to sell shares instantly whenever the market is open, the same isn't true for private REITs. Each company has its own rules when it comes to redemption of shares, and these can be very restrictive.
