Will REITs crash if interest rates rise?
Undoubtedly, rising interest rates pose challenges for REITs. All else being equal, higher interest rates tend to decrease the value of properties and increase REIT borrowing costs.
While higher rates negatively impacted nearly every sector of the economy in 2022 and most of 2023, real estate was hit especially hard. Rising interest rates hurt not only the value of REITs' property holdings but also the cost of debt to finance those properties or even refinance already-owned assets.
Right now, REITs (VNQ) are at an inflection point and time is running out for investors. But now as we head into 2024, we expect the polar opposite and this should lead to an epic recovery across the REIT sector. The Fed expects at least 3 interest rate cuts in 2024 and the market is predicting even more.
Interest rates remain high. The other factors driving the commercial real estate crisis, like falling demand for office space due to remote working, persist. On top of these macro factors, many REITs are even contending with their own tenant-related headwinds.
The REIT has a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the retail REIT's 2023 FFO per share has been unchanged over the past month. Despite this, the estimate figure suggests year-over-year growth of 2.3%.
Interest Rates. During periods of economic growth, REIT prices tend to rise along with interest rates. The reason is that a growing economy increases the value of REITs because the value of their underlying real estate assets increases.
After lagging equities the past two years, REITs offer an attractive investment opportunity in 2024. The headwind of higher bond yields and central bank rate hikes is likely to abate and may turn into a tailwind if our view about an impending economic slowdown and decelerating inflation trends is correct.
The value of a REIT is based on the real estate market, so if interest rates increase and the demand for properties goes down as a result, it could lead to lower property values, negatively impacting the value of your investment.
What this means is that REITs are ideal borrowers for banks. They are exactly who they want to do business with because they know that the risk of a REIT bankruptcy is extremely low. Just look at the past. There have been very few REIT bankruptcies over the past 50+ years.
According to expert panelists at the recent Nareit REITworld annual conference, 2024 could be a year of opportunity for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). They added a note of caution, however, that there are still headwinds affecting investor perspectives on REITs and capital markets in general.
Do REITs go down in a recession?
REITs historically perform well during and after recessions | Pensions & Investments.
Some of the main risk factors associated with REITs include leverage risk, liquidity risk, and market risk.
In fact, REIT total returns bounced back with impressive performance in the last quarter of 2023. Based on historical experience, the convergence of the wide valuation gap between public and private real estate will likely ensure continued REIT outperformance into 2024.
After a volatile couple of years, we're optimistic about the potential for a calmer year in 2024. Given the strong fundamentals and compelling long-term drivers among certain REIT subsectors, we think the coming year could be constructive for patient real-estate investors.
REITs: Late 2023 Performance Suggests Brighter Outlook for an Evolving Industry in 2024. The impressive performance of REITs during late October and November may be a signal that the end of the rate-rising cycle will herald a period of REIT outperformance.
“The next two years, 2024 and 2025, will have more commercial real estate debt due to be refinanced in the history of CRE, that will cause some assets to be lost as values have decreased as interest rates have gone up,” Chancey said.
But since REITs are invested in property, there's more protection against the horror show of having shares crash to $0. By law, 75% of a REITs asset must be invested in real estate. The market value of the property owned by the REIT offers a bit of protection, as long as the value of the property doesn't go to zero.
Key Points. REITs have outperformed stocks on 20-to-50-year horizons. Most REITs are less volatile than the S&P 500, with some only half as volatile as the market at large.
Are REITs Good Investments? Investing in REITs is a great way to diversify your portfolio outside of traditional stocks and bonds and can be attractive for their strong dividends and long-term capital appreciation.
There is no set lifetime for the trust in most cases. Investors who buy publicly traded shares in a REIT can usually buy as much or little as they like and dispose of the shares when they want or need to. However, if an investor buys a non-traded or private REIT, the investment should be considered illiquid.
Is REIT a long term investment?
Commercial property investments can provide a high and potentially rising rental income and some capital growth over the long term. REITs often have long-term lease agreements with tenants, which can help to make rental income and dividends paid relatively reliable.
Direct real estate offers more tax breaks than REIT investments, and gives investors more control over decision making. Many REITs are publicly traded on exchanges, so they're easier to buy and sell than traditional real estate.
Summary. REITs have access to capital and are acquiring assets, making it a good time to invest. REITs historically rebound when interest rates pivot and have the potential for rent growth.
The majority of REIT dividends are taxed as ordinary income up to the maximum rate of 37% (returning to 39.6% in 2026), plus a separate 3.8% surtax on investment income.
While a REIT is still open to public investors, investors may be able to sell their shares back to the REIT. However, this sale usually comes at a discount; leaving only about 70% to 95% of the original value. Once a REIT is closed to the public, REIT companies may not offer early redemptions.
